By Syed Nazri

Here it comes again, the twiddling talk about the general election being around the corner.

It all resurfaced when elder statesman Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad said early last week that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak should consider calling a general election soon as he was currently enjoying the highest popularity rating since assuming office in April last year.

Dr Mahathir had said that, going by the latest survey by the Merdeka Center for Opinion Research (which showed that the prime minister was enjoying a popularity rating exceeding 72 per cent), Najib stood more than a good chance of leading Barisan Nasional to victory.

The whirr of excitement from this remark rose another notch when Najib, in response to questions from journalists in Tumpat on Friday, said: "I cannot say one way or the other. If it (general election) happens, it will be a surprise."

So many interpretations came out of this statement, and it led to an election twist on almost everything -- as when Pas spiritual leader Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat said the prime minister should give adequate notice to the opposition as to when the election is to be called, the defection of DAP assemblyman for Malim Nawar Keshwinder Singh last week seen as a strategic move for the general election, and talk that a group of ulama would be joining Umno soon.

And, most significantly, Najib's reminder to BN component parties not to squabble publicly.

It has to be noted that Najib's two predecessors called for elections not long after assuming office so that, as they said, they could seek a fresh mandate.

Dr Mahathir himself dissolved Parliament on March 29, 1982, barely eight months after taking over from Tun Hussein Onn. Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi did the same on March 4, 2004, about four months into the top job. And both did extremely well, scoring landslide wins in their first tests -- Dr Mahathir leading BN to win 132 of 154 seats in Parliament, and Abdullah 199 of 219.

Najib is already past his first year in office, and those who want him to call a general election now say he is running late, citing the Merdeka Center survey, which shows he should ride on the crest of popularity.

Though the prerogative is solely Najib's, political observers tend to look around at other incidental determining factors. There are so many; some for and some against the idea of an early election.

Among them:

- Malaysia's excellent economic numbers. The 10.1 per cent first-quarter gross domestic product growth was phenomenal, and so was the country's competitiveness level, which has taken it into the world's Top 10. It has to be noted, too, that the BN's election record is quite directly proportionate to the country's economic situation -- the ruling coalition fared worse in 1969, 1999 and 2008, when the economy was bad.

- The 10th Malaysia Plan incorporating the New Economic Model, which seeks to propel the country into the big league within 10 years. It is accepted as pro-business while not ignoring social restructuring aspects, and is, therefore, a good election strategy as what Najib's father, second prime minister Tun Abdul Razak Hussein, had in the 1974 election, which whitewashed the opposition.

- The Sarawak state election. Although this must be held by the end of next year at the latest, many are speculating that it could be sooner -- hence, the theory about it being held simultaneously with the 13th general election.

- The disarray in the opposition, especially in Parti Keadilan Rakyat, which has seen the defection of some elected representatives. It is also soon due for an internal election, which is expected to be very acrimonious.

- The Selangor factor. Malaysia's richest state is key to a bountiful victory. And there are indications that the PKR-led state government is not living up to expectations among the people. Hence, BN is said to be ready to strike back.

- Umno appears to be at its most stable and united in years, and this is an important consideration as the party is the mainstay of BN. On the flipside, however, its main partners in BN are at their weakest -- particularly MCA and MIC, which some doomsayers say could be joining Gerakan in ignominy if elections are held now.

Perhaps the most significant factor that could determine when elections will be called is the possibility of a constituency redelineation exercise in the next two years.

Under the law, the electoral constituencies can be redrawn by the Election Commission every eight years, and this requires a two-thirds majority support in the Dewan Rakyat for parliament seats and in the state legislative assemblies for their respective state seats.

The last redelineation was in 2003, meaning the next one could be done as early as next year. There are two ways of looking at whether the ruling federal coalition would want to weigh this.

One, BN would want to call an election right away to secure two-thirds of Parliament, win back some of the states lost to the opposition and be ready for a smoother redelineation exercise.

The other would be to go through the expected technical rigours of redrawing the constituencies first, hope that it passes through legislation, and only then call an election. - New Straits Times